I’m hoping for a discussion on how you all get your groceries.
How we, as people, interact with place is largely determined by geographic access to basic human needs — like food. But our behavior is also influenced by our spatial patterns, preferences, and perceptions of distance.
For example, a grocery store may be within walking distance, but one may prefer to drive or find it more convenient as part of a larger driving pattern. Or there may be no grocery stores within walking distance; or if there are, they may not be worth walking to. Getting there by walking, transit, or rolling may also be uncomfortable, dangerous, or scary.
Here are some questions in the form of polls to get the conversation going. If there are other responses you’d like to include, or want to critique mine, start a discussion! If these prompt you to consider other questions, throw them into the mix!
So much here and so little time. But I will try to address "why it's so hard to pin down what's behind travel choice behavior?" and "how predictable is individual behavior in the face of choice?".
Let's start with the second one - choice is highly predictable in the aggregate and extremely unpredictable at the individual level. And the reason it's unpredictable - why it's hard to pin down what's behind it - is because so much depends on individual attitudes, perceptions, beliefs, . These are hard to observe and can vary from individual to individual in ways that are not necessarily correlated with the easily observed things like age and income of the traveler, and cost and time of the trip. Layer in constraints that are in theory observable but in practice costly to collect and that vary in a chaotic fashion from trip to trip and day to day - one car being in for repairs, needing to drop a kid at soccer practice and take a parent to the doctor, knowing you have an after-work event today - plus the effects of habits that are hard to dislodge, and it gets hard to collect enough data to understand the full choice process for an individual, and then even if you did, there would remain things that are truly random that you'll never capture in a model.
This is great, Don. I appreciate you taking the time. I hope to touch a bit on "predictable in the aggregate and unpredictable at the individual" and "attitudes, perceptions, and beliefs" in this week's upcoming post.
I don't have any research on this, but I do have opinions!
- I live 1 km (0.6 miles) from my usual grocery store.
- It's a 20-25 minute round trip walk, but with heavy bags of groceries it gets pretty uncomfortable (Shopping for 5-6 people, including 2-3 gallons of milk on each visit). A backpack would bear the load better, but takes more time to load & unload. I see people with wagons, etc, but that would mean slower walking - probably at least 30 minutes round trip.
- It's probably 10 minutes round trip to bike, but I rarely do that. Limited ability to carry stuff. I hear people talk about cargo bikes, but I would need to store it inside given that our "leaders" in Seattle have simply accepted rampant bike theft as a fact of life.
- It's a 5-6 minute round trip to drive, and we can still safely store our cars outside, most of the time, so that becomes the default mode. Easier to load and unload, and faster to travel.
- When we lived in Norway, we mostly drove for our groceries too. There was a grocery store about 2 minutes walk away, which was convenient for when we needed one or two things. But the prices were smaller and the selection larger at the big suburban supermarkets.
Thanks for your opinions, Don! And, now I see, I may have inadvertently suggested you are lazy. 😏😬😇
Could you maybe share (just a little) why it's so hard to pin down what's behind travel choice behavior? I know you have more than opinions on that one!
The burdens you illustrate are real, the fears are real, the conveniences real, and, yes, the bike theft is real. And clearly the human-made environment and correlated economics have shaped your decision making.
I've been looking at cargo bikes lately. Theft is less of a threat where I live (hence one of the attractions suburbia) and parking (with charging) is an issue. I also want/need a way to cover and secure my contents so I can trip-chain with a pedal-powered 'SUV'. I'm looking for a deep secured 'trunk', but those are less common on cargo bikes...which (in the U.S.) seem to be optimized for towing kids. (though Arrow makes a 'shorty' that would work...nothing 'small' about the price tag, however.)
I'm glad you brought up Norway. It's common to generalize that 'all of Northern Europe' bike, walk, or bus to everything. (I may be guilty of exaggerating and generalizing, myself) Clearly, they do more active transportation than most, comparatively.
But even in Oslo, where the city instituted a ban on cars in the Central Business District and have a robust, clean, efficient, and comfortable transit system, the suburbs are VERY car dependent. (they, like in America, also voice opposition to closing downtown to cars)
And while Norway enjoys the most (and most varied and affordable) EVs per capita, that has in-turn resulted in further car dependence! As you know, they've rolled back some of those EV incentives stating,
"Electric cars give us greener transport, but they also have a clear intermodal competition with public transport in urban areas. We must make it more attractive to travel by public transport, cycle, and walk."
It's also true that despite successful attempts to densify and provide alternative modes of transportation, many European cities have continued to sprawl. And with it, as you experienced, come supermarkets with larger selection and better prices. How convenient! How economical!
But how predictable is individual behavior in the face of choice?
I answered "Other" on the first question, but what I really wanted was to select more than 1. My husband does most of the grocery shopping and he prefers starting at Costco then hitting Whole Foods and Trader Joes on the way home - so he drives. When I shop, I tend to combine it with other stops on a bike trip (like office commute or community meetings or events).
Yes, Substack's polling is pretty limited right now!
Trip-chaining is an efficient way to make the most of time and energy use, for sure. Much better than single errand trips. And probably more efficient than being one of two or three people on a bus going to get groceries. (empty combustion engine buses are one of the biggest CO2 emitters as a function of potential occupant capacity. 😟 Full buses are the only green busses.)
Of course, those cities with better transit systems allow for trip-chaining to be done at various stops along the way. But alas, as you well know, we're just not there in the U.S.
Do you ever take single bike trips to your local QFC for the typical occasional egg, milk, or bread run?
My husband stops at that QFC on the way home from work occasionally. The (organic) produce selection isn't always the greatest there though.
I also meant to include that we do some grocery delivery services as well as farm CSAs. The latter we pick up (by walking or biking) at a drop spot in our neighborhood. The former includes Imperfect and a dry goods discount place. In the summer we do farmers markets by bike in Kirkland or driving to Lake Forest Park (sometimes we bike there, too, if we have time).
If Nancy is going to shift her focus to issues here in CA, I have a long list of what has only gotten worse since moving here in 2013 😊
I am told by the East Coast native who lives with me that it’s different (better) in the East. Maybe that perspective is illuminated through the rose tinted glasses of past residences?
Walks to the studio require constant vigilance to keep safe. As a pedestrian I am apparently invisible, but then traffic laws - most notably stop signs and red lights- aren’t adhered to here- so my expectations that right of ways for pedestrian apply are low.
I read where she's mostly just going to relax and avoid politics.
As of a review just last week, the CDC reports "Road traffic crashes are a leading cause of death in the United States for people ages 1–54, and they are the leading cause of nonnatural death for U.S. citizens residing or traveling abroad."
This includes any human involved in a collision (car occupants, pedestrians, cyclists, scooterists, motorcyclists, etc.)
Slower speeds go a long way toward reducing these numbers, but it takes more than signs. Roads have to augmented to expressly do what every city in America does NOT want to do...slow down traffic. It's counter intuitive, but if cities want to solve traffic congestion make it impossible to drive a car and they magically start to disappear. (but safe alternatives do have to be made possible)
It’s a challenge to find organic and other grocery preferences within easy walking distance. Heavy items are always planned and more frequent trips mitigates heavier loads.
Going on 10 years without driving a car. I wish I could say the time span has seen improvements and a more friendlier pedestrian infrastructure, but the opposite is true. Sidewalks and safe walking paths are not prevalent. Even in a “progressive” city like San Francisco. In tax preparation I am always asked about electric car purchases but there is no tax incentive for choosing not to drive at all.
I've always known you to be a committed walk, John! I see the 'heavy item' issue returning here too. Have you considered a rolling cart? I can see you towing a Rolser! (see my Callie reply above ☝🏼)
And, yes, I see what you mean about no tax incentive to go car free! What a great idea!
Of course, we live in a country where car is king politically, economically, and socially. Probably now more than ever given the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act which offers further incentives to both car makers and consumers to go make and buy MORE CARS! 🙄🤪
But I'm with you. The biggest tax break should be afforded to those with no car. Maybe now that Nancy Pelosi has more time on her hands, and will be spending more of it in SF, you can make a pitch on a walk to your studio.
Surely she also needs a couple Schilling's to calm the demons of her home invasion. 😏
Jan 27, 2023·edited Jan 27, 2023Liked by Brad Weed
I walk to Pike Place Market or Uwajimaya mostly, pushing or pulling my rolling wire basket with a handle that's too short because I'm a tall person. Will prefers walking to the new PCC on 4th Ave, carrying groceries home in his Ortlieb backpack (the rolling wire basket is an affront to his masculinity, I think, and even shorter for him). But I also get groceries by bike and car sometimes, transit less so. I wanted the choice to stack rank and multi select!
You have some good options in that part of Seattle. I look forward to hearing about your walking journey to Pike Place after the move. 😉
I'm thrilled to hear you use a rolling basket. Indeed there's some stigma there. I tried to get my Mom to use one (she often walks for groceries as she doesn't drive), but she said, "I don't want to look like an old lady pulling a cart." 🤭
I have yet to pull the trigger myself, but when I do I'll be looking to get one of these fancy Rolsers!
You folks in Europe are often afforded really great options. Even grocery chains have small neighborhood stores. That's something rarely seen in the US, even when there's density.
Although, Safeway is now converting many of their properties into mixed use. They recognized the economic value of extracting real estate revenue upstairs while extracting grocery revenue downstairs.
They created their own density and customer loyalty while increasing revenues.
Good point about carrying heavy items. This is expressly why I wanted to get my Mom a cart. (see my reply to Callie above ☝🏼)
So much here and so little time. But I will try to address "why it's so hard to pin down what's behind travel choice behavior?" and "how predictable is individual behavior in the face of choice?".
Let's start with the second one - choice is highly predictable in the aggregate and extremely unpredictable at the individual level. And the reason it's unpredictable - why it's hard to pin down what's behind it - is because so much depends on individual attitudes, perceptions, beliefs, . These are hard to observe and can vary from individual to individual in ways that are not necessarily correlated with the easily observed things like age and income of the traveler, and cost and time of the trip. Layer in constraints that are in theory observable but in practice costly to collect and that vary in a chaotic fashion from trip to trip and day to day - one car being in for repairs, needing to drop a kid at soccer practice and take a parent to the doctor, knowing you have an after-work event today - plus the effects of habits that are hard to dislodge, and it gets hard to collect enough data to understand the full choice process for an individual, and then even if you did, there would remain things that are truly random that you'll never capture in a model.
This is great, Don. I appreciate you taking the time. I hope to touch a bit on "predictable in the aggregate and unpredictable at the individual" and "attitudes, perceptions, and beliefs" in this week's upcoming post.
On a related note, a good interview on Volts:
https://www.volts.wtf/p/on-the-abuse-and-proper-use-of-climate
with the author of:
"Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do About It"
https://www.harvard.com/book/escape_from_model_land/
Erica Thompson, Senior Policy Fellow in Ethics of Modelling and Simulation at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
http://www.ericathompson.co.uk/
Oh dear, Brad, I guess I should have taught you a little better on survey design. I'm lazy? Talk about a loaded question!
🤣 It worked! A click bait plant, I admit.
And don't look at the last survey where my histogram bin ranges were inconsistent!
🙄😏🤫
And, now, what a great opportunity for you to share your thoughts and research!
I don't have any research on this, but I do have opinions!
- I live 1 km (0.6 miles) from my usual grocery store.
- It's a 20-25 minute round trip walk, but with heavy bags of groceries it gets pretty uncomfortable (Shopping for 5-6 people, including 2-3 gallons of milk on each visit). A backpack would bear the load better, but takes more time to load & unload. I see people with wagons, etc, but that would mean slower walking - probably at least 30 minutes round trip.
- It's probably 10 minutes round trip to bike, but I rarely do that. Limited ability to carry stuff. I hear people talk about cargo bikes, but I would need to store it inside given that our "leaders" in Seattle have simply accepted rampant bike theft as a fact of life.
- It's a 5-6 minute round trip to drive, and we can still safely store our cars outside, most of the time, so that becomes the default mode. Easier to load and unload, and faster to travel.
- When we lived in Norway, we mostly drove for our groceries too. There was a grocery store about 2 minutes walk away, which was convenient for when we needed one or two things. But the prices were smaller and the selection larger at the big suburban supermarkets.
Thanks for your opinions, Don! And, now I see, I may have inadvertently suggested you are lazy. 😏😬😇
Could you maybe share (just a little) why it's so hard to pin down what's behind travel choice behavior? I know you have more than opinions on that one!
The burdens you illustrate are real, the fears are real, the conveniences real, and, yes, the bike theft is real. And clearly the human-made environment and correlated economics have shaped your decision making.
I've been looking at cargo bikes lately. Theft is less of a threat where I live (hence one of the attractions suburbia) and parking (with charging) is an issue. I also want/need a way to cover and secure my contents so I can trip-chain with a pedal-powered 'SUV'. I'm looking for a deep secured 'trunk', but those are less common on cargo bikes...which (in the U.S.) seem to be optimized for towing kids. (though Arrow makes a 'shorty' that would work...nothing 'small' about the price tag, however.)
https://urbanarrow.com/family-bikes/shorty/
I'm glad you brought up Norway. It's common to generalize that 'all of Northern Europe' bike, walk, or bus to everything. (I may be guilty of exaggerating and generalizing, myself) Clearly, they do more active transportation than most, comparatively.
But even in Oslo, where the city instituted a ban on cars in the Central Business District and have a robust, clean, efficient, and comfortable transit system, the suburbs are VERY car dependent. (they, like in America, also voice opposition to closing downtown to cars)
And while Norway enjoys the most (and most varied and affordable) EVs per capita, that has in-turn resulted in further car dependence! As you know, they've rolled back some of those EV incentives stating,
"Electric cars give us greener transport, but they also have a clear intermodal competition with public transport in urban areas. We must make it more attractive to travel by public transport, cycle, and walk."
It's also true that despite successful attempts to densify and provide alternative modes of transportation, many European cities have continued to sprawl. And with it, as you experienced, come supermarkets with larger selection and better prices. How convenient! How economical!
But how predictable is individual behavior in the face of choice?
I answered "Other" on the first question, but what I really wanted was to select more than 1. My husband does most of the grocery shopping and he prefers starting at Costco then hitting Whole Foods and Trader Joes on the way home - so he drives. When I shop, I tend to combine it with other stops on a bike trip (like office commute or community meetings or events).
Yes, Substack's polling is pretty limited right now!
Trip-chaining is an efficient way to make the most of time and energy use, for sure. Much better than single errand trips. And probably more efficient than being one of two or three people on a bus going to get groceries. (empty combustion engine buses are one of the biggest CO2 emitters as a function of potential occupant capacity. 😟 Full buses are the only green busses.)
Of course, those cities with better transit systems allow for trip-chaining to be done at various stops along the way. But alas, as you well know, we're just not there in the U.S.
Do you ever take single bike trips to your local QFC for the typical occasional egg, milk, or bread run?
My husband stops at that QFC on the way home from work occasionally. The (organic) produce selection isn't always the greatest there though.
I also meant to include that we do some grocery delivery services as well as farm CSAs. The latter we pick up (by walking or biking) at a drop spot in our neighborhood. The former includes Imperfect and a dry goods discount place. In the summer we do farmers markets by bike in Kirkland or driving to Lake Forest Park (sometimes we bike there, too, if we have time).
Ahhhh, yes. Well placed Community-Supported Agriculture drop points and farmers' markets offer a great opportunities to walk or bike for groceries!
If Nancy is going to shift her focus to issues here in CA, I have a long list of what has only gotten worse since moving here in 2013 😊
I am told by the East Coast native who lives with me that it’s different (better) in the East. Maybe that perspective is illuminated through the rose tinted glasses of past residences?
Walks to the studio require constant vigilance to keep safe. As a pedestrian I am apparently invisible, but then traffic laws - most notably stop signs and red lights- aren’t adhered to here- so my expectations that right of ways for pedestrian apply are low.
I read where she's mostly just going to relax and avoid politics.
As of a review just last week, the CDC reports "Road traffic crashes are a leading cause of death in the United States for people ages 1–54, and they are the leading cause of nonnatural death for U.S. citizens residing or traveling abroad."
https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/global-road-safety/index.html
This includes any human involved in a collision (car occupants, pedestrians, cyclists, scooterists, motorcyclists, etc.)
Slower speeds go a long way toward reducing these numbers, but it takes more than signs. Roads have to augmented to expressly do what every city in America does NOT want to do...slow down traffic. It's counter intuitive, but if cities want to solve traffic congestion make it impossible to drive a car and they magically start to disappear. (but safe alternatives do have to be made possible)
It’s a challenge to find organic and other grocery preferences within easy walking distance. Heavy items are always planned and more frequent trips mitigates heavier loads.
Going on 10 years without driving a car. I wish I could say the time span has seen improvements and a more friendlier pedestrian infrastructure, but the opposite is true. Sidewalks and safe walking paths are not prevalent. Even in a “progressive” city like San Francisco. In tax preparation I am always asked about electric car purchases but there is no tax incentive for choosing not to drive at all.
I've always known you to be a committed walk, John! I see the 'heavy item' issue returning here too. Have you considered a rolling cart? I can see you towing a Rolser! (see my Callie reply above ☝🏼)
And, yes, I see what you mean about no tax incentive to go car free! What a great idea!
Of course, we live in a country where car is king politically, economically, and socially. Probably now more than ever given the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act which offers further incentives to both car makers and consumers to go make and buy MORE CARS! 🙄🤪
But I'm with you. The biggest tax break should be afforded to those with no car. Maybe now that Nancy Pelosi has more time on her hands, and will be spending more of it in SF, you can make a pitch on a walk to your studio.
Surely she also needs a couple Schilling's to calm the demons of her home invasion. 😏
I walk to Pike Place Market or Uwajimaya mostly, pushing or pulling my rolling wire basket with a handle that's too short because I'm a tall person. Will prefers walking to the new PCC on 4th Ave, carrying groceries home in his Ortlieb backpack (the rolling wire basket is an affront to his masculinity, I think, and even shorter for him). But I also get groceries by bike and car sometimes, transit less so. I wanted the choice to stack rank and multi select!
You have some good options in that part of Seattle. I look forward to hearing about your walking journey to Pike Place after the move. 😉
I'm thrilled to hear you use a rolling basket. Indeed there's some stigma there. I tried to get my Mom to use one (she often walks for groceries as she doesn't drive), but she said, "I don't want to look like an old lady pulling a cart." 🤭
I have yet to pull the trigger myself, but when I do I'll be looking to get one of these fancy Rolsers!
https://www.rolser.us/en/
Until then, we LOVE our Seattle designed and made Bihn Tote Bags. Rugged with super soft handles.
https://www.tombihn.com/collections/tote-bags
I have considered using our kids old John Deere wagon, but the handle is too short. And it's a John Deere and I'm a Massey Ferguson guy.
Thanks for the rolling cart recommendations!
Bria's horrified by my cart. But I don't care if I look like an old lady anymore. Because...guess what? I am one! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiSL1qzFhtk
😂
Usually we walk. Of course if what we're buying is too heavy to carry back, then we use the car.
You folks in Europe are often afforded really great options. Even grocery chains have small neighborhood stores. That's something rarely seen in the US, even when there's density.
Although, Safeway is now converting many of their properties into mixed use. They recognized the economic value of extracting real estate revenue upstairs while extracting grocery revenue downstairs.
They created their own density and customer loyalty while increasing revenues.
Good point about carrying heavy items. This is expressly why I wanted to get my Mom a cart. (see my reply to Callie above ☝🏼)